Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 21 November 2021

The S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter.

The purpose of this post is to add extra color and commentary around the charts.

The charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective.

Hope you enjoy!

p.s. if you haven’t already, subscribe (free) to receive the ChartStorm direct to your inbox, so you don’t miss out on any charts (you never know which one could change the whole perspective!)

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1. S&P 500 Seasonality Chart: It’s everyone’s favorite chart updated again (maybe for the last time this year?). The S&P500 has been sticking to the seasonality script through most of this year… makes me think about Murphy’s Law tho - maybe the market will start to improvise and go off-script? Either way, the next few weeks seasonally look like sideways action.

chart of US stockmarket seasonality

Source: @topdowncharts

2. Volatility Seasonality: A twist on the previous chart — same concept, but this time with implied volatility. I find it interesting to note that the VIX has actually been a bit lower than usual for this time of the year (and trending up short-term…). One last VIX spike before year-end?

chart of stockmarket volatility VIX  seasonality

Source: @topdowncharts

3. Stockmarket Statistics: What happens after the market goes up a “crazy overheated” 20%+ over the course of a year?

More Gains.

Historically most of the time if the market closed up 20%+ for the year, the next year was also positive (84% of the time). As of writing, the market is up some 27% YTD (albeit, this year ain't over yet!).

table of stockmarket statistics 20% year

Source: @RyanDetrick

4. Bad Breadth? Fully 1/3rd of stocks are in a downtrend.

(defined as trading below their respective 200dma)

Will this bearish divergence be a problem?