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Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 31 October 2021

The S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter.


The purpose of this post is to add extra color and commentary around the charts.


The charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective.


Hope you enjoy!


p.s. if you haven’t already, subscribe (free) to receive the ChartStorm direct to your inbox, so you don’t miss out on any charts (you never know which one could change the whole perspective!)

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1. Happy New Month! The S&P 500 notched up a very respectable 6.9% for the month of October. The chart below shows the monthly progression - n.b. click here for the log chart version (for the log chart enjoyers). Pretty much the reverse of September as seasonality and sentiment shifted.

monthly chart of SPX

Source: @topdowncharts



2. Asset Class Returns in October: Among the assets I keep track of (these are the ones I run Capital Market Assumptions for), the S&P500 [US Large Caps] was a close second from the top in October. Overall it was a very risk-on month: equities and commodities did well, and just about all flavors of fixed income took a step back as government bond yields surged globally. EM local currency bonds took a double whammy from rising yields and softer EMFX.

chart of asset performance October 2021

Source: Monthly Asset Class Returns update



3. November is Here: Regular readers will note that seasonality has been a running topic lately (especially given that it helped flag the September stumble and subsequent rebound). Since we’re just about into November, I thought this chart would be worth highlighting - it shows that historically November has been one of the best months of the year. But then again, one could ask the question: how many of those Novembers featured the Fed announcing taper?! (n.b. the FOMC meets this coming week!).

chart of monthly seasonality - November 2021

Source: @RyanDetrick



4. Seasonal Fund Flows: A logical flow-on - as you might expect: November has historically been one of the strongest months in terms of inflows into equity funds.