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Tuesday Technicals - 6 Sep 2016

September 5, 2016

Here's a quick draw 5 macro technical charts (going as far as individual commodities, currencies, bonds, and sectors, as well as the rest of the major indexes). No comments on anything except the technical/price developments. Even if you're not technical analysis minded it's a useful way to keep on top of trends in some of the main financial markets and a prompt for further investigation...

 

1. Copper - Rectangle

-The large rectangle pattern in copper continues to play through with another touch of the bottom side

-RSI starting to turn up from oversold levels, thus short term the outlook is bullish

-Bias is to expect the rectangle to breakout to the upside as part of a larger bottoming process

 

2. US 10 Year - Ascending Triangle

-After a downside break of a descending triangle the UST10Y is putting in an ascending triangle pattern

-The 1.60% level is a critical line in the sand; the bottom line of the descending triangle 1.70% is the next hurdle if 1.6 can be broken

-We are just about at the apex of the descending triangle; interesting things tend to happen at the apex...

 

 

3. DXY - Short Term Uptrend

-DXY has been quietly putting in a series (3) of higher lows

-Recent low didn't even go below the stubbornly strong support level of 94

-(but) the 98 level is still going to be the big test for what has been a range bound market

 

 

4. XLF - Inverse Head and Shoulders

-Inverse head and shoulders pattern continues to play through for the financials sector

-Simple target rule (head vs neckline + breakout) = ~~ 27.5 (24-20+23.5); suggesting more upside is possible; will have meaningful implications for the rest of the market if it plays through

-Small upside gap last week on the weekly chart with high volume; a potential breakaway gap

 

5. WEAT - Capitulation

-Wheat had a major breakdown with heavy selling and RSI lighting up as oversold

-Clear and present downtrend though (price below 50, 50 below 200, 200 downward sloping)

-Looks tempting as a reversal play but be wary of going against the trend

 

 

 

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