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Tuesday Technicals - 13 Sep 2016

September 12, 2016

Here's a quick draw 5 macro technical charts (going as far as individual commodities, currencies, bonds, and sectors, as well as the rest of the major indexes). No comments on anything except the technical/price developments. Even if you're not technical analysis minded it's a useful way to keep on top of trends in some of the main financial markets and as a prompt for further investigation...

 

1. US10 Year Treasury - Upside b/o Ascending Triangle

-A follow up from last week's technicals; upside breakout from ascending triangle has occurred in the daily chart of the US10yr treasury yield.

-Yield now brushing up against the base of the previous larger descending triangle.

-Yield also coming close to its 200dma on the daily chart; this is a critical juncture for the US 10 year, and a breakout of the 1.70 level (resistance & 200dma) would be a watershed.

 

2. EURUSD - Ascending Triangle

-EURUSD putting in an Ascending Triangle on the weekly chart.

-Follows a downside break of a previous ascending triangle pattern (arguably part of a much larger one).

-For EURUSD 1.14 is proving impenetrable so far, but it could end up second time lucky on the second ascending triangle, at a time when EURUSD is above an upward sloping 200dma on the daily chart.

 

3. Gold - Bull Flag

-Gold in a downtrend channel on the daily chart; forming a "bull flag".

-Bull flags take place in a rapidly advancing market, and slope against the previous trend, generally acting as continuation patterns; so watch for an upside breakout. 

-Target rule is that a flag appears halfway up the pole i.e. the distance between breakout and start of previous price move (in this case say ~$1330 vs $1200, would mean a target over $1400).

 

4. Crude Oil - Symmetrical Triangle

-Crude oil in a rapidly tightening symmetrical triangle on the daily.

-Also coming up towards the end of a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart.

-Seasonality is a short-term threat in Q4, but upward sloping RSI would bias expectations towards an upside break of the triangle; a breakout either way will likely be a $10 move, so keep an eye out for this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5. RUT - Failed downside break of 50dma

-US small caps (Russell 2000) bounced off 50dma; the strong uptrend remains firmly intact.

-Still upside to go (towards 1400) from previous complex head & shoulders bottom.

-Strong relative performance vs the S&P500 suggests Friday was a dip to be bought.

 

 

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