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Tuesday Technicals - 29 November 2016

November 28, 2016

Here's the regular 5 macro technical charts (going as far as individual commodities, currencies, bonds, and sectors, as well as the rest of the major indexes and benchmarks).  No comments on anything except the technical/price developments (albeit we will typically cover the broader case in the Weekly Macro Themes where the technical and fundamental set up produce a compelling investment idea).  Even if you're not technical analysis minded it's a useful way to keep on top of trends in some of the main financial markets and as a prompt for further investigation...



1. India - Capitulation  

-Classic capitulation, after breaking 50 and 200 day moving averages and gapping down on heavy volume a short term bottom appears to be in.

-RSI went oversold and has now turned up, likewise MACD on the verge of giving a buy signal. 

-Look for possible filling of the gap; key test will be the 200d MA, support on this chart looks to be around $26 (risk definition - a break of that would be bearish confirmation).

Overall technical view: Bullish short term, look for bullish confirmation e.g. breakout of 200d MA



2. Copper - A new bull market?  

-Copper made a clear and compelling upside breakout from a symmetrical triangle.

-It has breached its long term downtrend line.

-The next stop for bullish confirmation will be a breach of the 2.80 resistance level.

Overall technical view: Bullish



3. Shanghai Composite - The return of the bull market

-The Shanghai Composite (China A-Shares i.e. domestic market) is now up almost 25% from the bottom.

-It has now undergone 3 breakouts: the ascending triangle, the 50 and 200 day moving averages, and the psychologically important 3200 level.

-The next stop is minor resistance of 3400 where you could see some consolidation, before a potential move towards major resistance of 3600 (meanwhile 3200 is now support - and the downside risk trigger point)

Overall technical view: Bullish 



4. Grains  - Preparing for a breakout?  

-Ascending triangle set up on the weekly chart - look for an upside breakout ($29.50 trigger, $30 confirmation). 

-Implied volatility (the VIX of grains) is compressing; a good predictor of future higher volatility. 

-RSI and MACD tracking upwards, the bottom looks to be in. 

Overall technical view: Bullish bias, but wait for breakout 



5. NZDUSD - Head & Shoulders  

-NZDUSD appears to be putting in a head and shoulders top on the weekly chart.

-A breach of the neckline/support of 0.70 will be bearish and could open up as much as a 4 cent move to the downside based on the H&S measure rule.

-Worth noting, H&S can serve as a continuation pattern; key is for a downside break for confirmation. 

Overall technical view: Neutral - on watch for a bearish downside break 



Thanks to and for charts.



Previous editions:

Tuesday Technicals - 22 November 2016

Tuesday Technicals - 15 November 2016

Tuesday Technicals - 8 November 2016



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