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Weekly Macro Themes - 3 Feb 2017

February 2, 2017

Here's an overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest Weekly Macro Themes.

 

This week it's a commodity special!

 

1. Asset class level view of commodities: An index level view of several indicators including implied volatility, futures positioning, market breadth, and correlation with GDP growth and the implications for the outlook.

 

2. Crude oil: The outlook for crude oil prices based on volatility compression, seasonality, option pricing, speculative futures activity, and the changing supply and demand dynamics.

 

3. Gold: Balancing the short-term signals from key technical indicators vs the fundamental headwinds of a stronger dollar and rising real yields - some key charts that make it clear.

 

4. Industrial metals: An interesting technical setup with some equally interesting fundamental drivers that could push a shift in market regime.

 

5. Grains: Charts outline the technicals situation (option volatility, hedge fund futures positioning, real/deflated price, and an interesting divergence), and an important indicator on the all important weather variable.

 


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