Chart: S&P500 Long Term Earnings Growth Outlook

August 18, 2018

This is quite the chart - it shows the consensus estimates of the longer term earnings growth outlook for the S&P500, and it's the highest since the later stages of the dot com bubble.  But back then it was all about "the new economy" as dot com companies were disrupting industries left right and center and promising a tech revolution.  Now it's tax cut euphoria, and the hope of a shaking of the old "secular stagnation" fear that took hold in 2015/16.  Indeed, it's interesting to reflect on the history of this chart, it seems to speak more about sentiment than fundamentals (or maybe some mix of the two).  With the US economy still going strong, one may be tempted to channel Irving Fisher's "permanently high plateau" quote...

 

  

 

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