Here's a brief preview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report.
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1. Data Review: We take a look at our key macro indicators across the global economy to see what trends greet us in the new year from a global trade, growth, and credit situations perspective. We also review how this impacts on the key asset classes.
2. Maturing Cycle: There is mounting evidence that the business cycle is steadily maturing in developed economies, the logical next step is more inflation and a turning of the tides in global monetary policy.
3. Monetary Policy Tides: Whether its interest rates or balance sheets, EM or DM, the global monetary policy tides are turning; at the margin this incrementally raises headwinds for risk assets.
4. Overvaluation: The steady march higher in valuations within and across asset classes (takes on increasing importance given topics 2&3) highlights the value of cash and the attraction of relative value.
5. S&P500 Charts: The weight of charts and indicators make it look like correction/selloff risk is high, and bear market risk relatively low. See the charts and graphs that lead us to this conclusion...
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights. Also part of the service is the monthly Chartbook which contains the key charts and views across asset classes with a tactical/dynamic positioning model.
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