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Weekly Macro Themes - 9 December 2016

December 9, 2016

Here's an overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest Weekly Macro Themes.

 

1. Final thoughts before the Fed: A look at some key trends and charts that show a rapidly tightening labour market and inflation on the verge of taking off. The Fed will probably hike interest rates next week and it probably won't be "one-and-done" like last time. 

 

2. The long shadow of shadow short rates: Shadow policy rates show what the effective monetary policy interest rate is when the central bank is doing QE.  This theme shows the shadow fed funds rate from Krippner and the Wu-Xia methods, and the same method extended for the ECB, BoJ and BoE.  There is an interesting conclusion coming out of this analysis...

 

3. The wage growth vs Fed funds indicator: These charts show why accelerating wage growth may not be a bad thing for the stock market, and could actually be a very bullish sign.

 

4. US IPO trends: We look at a series of charts that show the monthly trends in IPO filings, IPO withdrawals; a longer term look at IPO activity vs the stock market, and an apparent structural decline in IPOs; also looked at is the proportion of biotech and tech companies vs the total number which shows a bit of a warning sign for Biotech; also shown is the proportion of companies doing IPOs with negative earnings.

 

5. Implications of implied correlations: You've heard of the CBOE VIX, you might have also heard of the VVIX and SKEW, but have you heard of the CBOE Implied Correlation Indexes? We take a look at this unique indicator and how it can be applied to market timing.

 

 

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