In this video we look at the Fed, inflation and full employment. Specifically, the video walks you through a couple of slides of a recent edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. In the video we talk through the unemployment rate and the signal that it is giving on the status of the US labor market. Our findings show the unemployment rate in relation to NAIRU is indicating tight capacity in the jobs market, with independent verification from the small business and consumer confidence surveys. We then look at the global picture to see how capacity across developed economies is impacting on the global inflation outlook and how this ties back to America. The end implication is an inflationary outlook and a scenario where the Fed continues to normalize policy aka monetary policy tightening. This is a key macro market matter for investors to consider.
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